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Hubbard, Douglas W., 1962-
Pulse : the new science of harnessing Internet buzz to track threats and opportunities / Douglas W. Hubbard
Hoboken, N.J. : Wiley, c2011
book jacket
Location Call Number Status
 3rd Floor  HF5415.2 .H7775 2011    AVAILABLE
Subject(s) Marketing research -- Computer network resources
Internet research
Business forecasting
Physical Description xiii, 191 p. : ill., maps ; 24 cm
Note Includes index
Summary "This book will introduce how the Internet can be used to assess market trends and public opinion before the slower and far more expensive, traditional government reports and Gallup polls are published. It could be similar to having a real-time "Dow Jones" index for buzz about a company or confidence in the economy. The book will talk about how to take this raw data and validate it using some traditional methods without relying on them entirely in the future. It will discuss how this will eventually effect business and government in a much broader sense. For example, this tool allows for a new kind of real-time decision analysis that will greatly improve productivity. Pulse will describe how most major decisions are made on information that was actually available quite a long time prior to the beginning of the analysis of the decision, nevermind the decision itself. But real-time information about socio-economic trends and public opinion will allow for a kind of "programmed trading" for some decisions similar to how trading firms automate buying and selling. Specific examples include: Specific examples will incude: A Canadian epidemiologist tracked Google searches on the phrase "flu sympoms". He used this information to track flu outbreaks faster than the Canadian health authorizes could keep up. His success later inspired Google's "Flu Trends" tool. Researchers at HP labs showed how tracking Twitter comments about upcoming movies could reliably predict box office success better than any other method. It will show how the number of Google searches nationwide on the term "unemployment" (publically available through "Google trends") tracks very closely to Bearue of Labor Statistics (BLS) unemployment reports. The difference is that BLS releases its data monthly after samply 60,000 households while Google trends data is available weekly and for free. Research by Carnegie Mellon students show that tracking Twitter comments produces nearly the same results for consumer confidence and political polls as Gallup polls would produce - except that the results are real-time and free. I'll introduce the possibility that even tracking auctions on ebay, ranks of books on Amazon, or job-seeking websites may become the new way to track real time data about the economy and trends in public opnion. LA County detected (with 85% accuracy) collusive fraud rings in public assistance programs based onn analysis of links in social networks. "Semantic" analysis tools are even being developed to process thousands of blogs and Facebook comments that could be used to assess security threats like potential terrorism."-- Provided by publisher
Note Includes bibliographical references and index
Contents Preface. -- Acknowledgments. -- SECTION I: INTRODUCTION TO THE PULSE: A NEW KIND OF INSTRUMENT. -- A New Era for Measuring and Predicting Society. -- An Emerging Science: What is This New Thing? -- What Applied Cybersociology Isn't. -- The Major Areas of the Macro-Pulse -- But What Does All of This Mean for Us? -- Note. -- The History of Seeing the Forest through the Trees. -- The King's Surveys. -- The Dawn of Stats, Maps, and Telegraphs. -- The Rise of the Machines. -- The Struggle to Become a Science. -- Notes. -- Emergence of the Pulse and the New Research Discipline. -- The New Data Source. -- Digital Lives: Increasing Time and Activities per Person. -- Open Pastures: A New Field of Research. -- Proving the Pulse: Addressing Misconceptions about the Data. -- Notes. -- The Dynamics of The Pulse. -- Incentives: Why The Pulse Exists. -- The Systems behind Getting and Sharing Data. -- Collaboration and Competition. -- Power Law: Why a Few Sources Tell Us a Lot on the Internet. -- Note
SECTION II: THE SOURCES OF THE PULSE. -- What Our Surfing Says. -- Tracking Flu Outbreaks: A Faster, Better, and Cheaper Method. -- A Do-It-Yourself Pulse Tracking Example: Using Google Trends for Economic Predictions. -- More Searchology: The Body of Research Grows. -- Caveats and Miscellaneous Considerations for Searchologists. -- Notes. -- Friend as a Verb. -- How Do Social Networks Matter? -- The Dynamic Duo of Social Connections: Two Leaders in Practical Network Research. -- Forecasting the Crowd. -- Social Networks in the Pulse. -- Notes. -- What We Say Online Matters. -- An Introduction to Analyzing Buzz: Counting Tweets Predicts Movie Box Office Receipts. -- Predicting the Broader Economy with Tweets. -- Predicting Markets with Anxiety. -- Tools and Miscellanea for Tapping into the Global Mood. -- Notes. -- Three Potential Pulses: Travelling, Shopping, and Playing. -- Our Flow and the Pulse: What the Movements of Millions of People Tell Us. -- The Shopping Pulse. -- Playtime and the Pulse. -- Notes
SECTION III: EFFECTS OF THE PULSE. -- Making the Pulse Practical. -- Re-Thinking Real-Time Decisions in the Pulse. -- A Brief Overview of the Economics of Timely Information. -- Overcoming Cultural and Conceptual Obstacle: Maximizing the Value of the Pulse. -- Implementing the Pulse. -- Notes. -- The Future of the Pulse and its New Challenges. -- Users and the Data They Share Will Increase. -- Services Will Be Better and Make More Data Public. -- Research and Models. -- From Communicators to Tricorders: for Everyone. -- Evolving Challenges and Opportunities for Users of the Pulse. -- Notes. -- About the Author. -- Index

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