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Fisher, Len
Crashes, crises, and calamities : how we can use science to read the early-warning signs / Len Fisher
New York : Basic Books, c2011
book jacket
Location Call Number Status
 3rd Floor  HV675 .F49 2011    AVAILABLE
Subject(s) Accidents -- Prevention
Natural disasters -- Forecasting
Disasters -- Forecasting
Science -- History
Science -- Social aspects
Scientists
Physical Description xviii, 233 p. : ill. ; 22 cm
Note Includes bibliographical references (p. 171-217) and index
Contents Pt. 1. A potted pre-history of prognostication. Do animals have crystal balls? -- The future eclipsed -- Galileo's hell -- Pt. 2. How disasters happen. The stress of it all -- Runaway disaster -- The balance of nature and the nature of balance -- Pt. 3. Imminent catastrophes : reading the signs. The chaotic ecology of dragons -- Teetering on the brink of catastrophe -- Models and supermodels -- Beware of mathematicians -- Weak signals as major early-warning signs -- Summary : The future of forecasting
Summary Drawing on ecology and biology, math and physics, the author offers four fundamental tools that scientists and engineers use to forecast the likelihood of sudden change: stability, catastrophe, complexity, and game theories

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